dow futures , page-116

I would be inclined to agree with you mreinke, I am far more converned about the next economic cycle than this cycle.

With well over 8 trillion sitting on the sidelines in cash and fixed interest assets, any sniff of an economic bottom,the door into the market will be very narrow given the more broader participation of the market these days from the institutions to retail.

The reality is that unless China and India move to a western spending pattern over the next few years, as most are still way behind the hedonic treadmill incomparision to our western household luxeries. This cannot be ruled out, and China could overtake the US as the dominant economy within the next 10-15 years which may be our real saving grace to avoid very significant gloabl downturn.

In saying that, IMO the next economic expansion may be very long in duration than normal cycles.

Our gauge to the extent on the next decade or so of economic performance, we must look deeply into the consumer spending patterns and the human behavior that makes up these patterns. The hedonic treadmill in deeply entrenched withing the human psyche and consumption is just an extension of this psyche of "we want and need more" compulsive spending is as much and additction than gambling, with the same chemical feel good effects.

Unfortunately most economists and financial history do not truly understand these shifting spending patterns.

In a global enviroment that seems to be moving further away from our core values for happiness, I will firmly back consumer consumption to fill this emptiness.