P2W: "And Moody's 'rumour' that they're going to downgrade France's three largest banks."
Remember massive market falls in August on 'rumours' of French and German government downgrades despite ratings agencies near immediate public denial of those claims. Consider this article Fitch basically says 'IF Greece defaults it will be absorbed by banks in a write down of recurring earnings without downgrade.' Actual figures in the report on the German exposure look vanishingly small: $30bn total with the majority of that exposure held by government, not banks. If going on these figures alone fear on Greece situation looks utterly irrational. Contrary data welcome.
Interestingly has anyone heard any notice that good news stories are still barely rating a mention. i.e.
Where's the real data in news reports around likelihood of Spanish/Italian defaults. We're told repeatedly that the end is near, figures are thin on the ground. Remember economists who have this data are bullish. CBA, ANZ, BT, RBS morgans are the ones I've seen in the past few week make strongly bullish predictions.
patvv: "Expect capitulation later in the week with Greece declaring bancruptcy followed by the beginning of the bull market with agreement on jobs bill to be passed.IMO"
Bankruptcy vs a 'managed default' are somewhat different. I agree this could happen but also it could happen that Greek default already priced in. Particularly a 'managed default'. From what I've seen in the data at this point, if we move lower it will be fear alone, not fundamentals.
Can someone explain weakness in gold over last few days? I don't think explainations I've seen cover it: USD strength and selling gold to cover losses. As I recall, all previous falls through Aug-Sep have seen corresponding rise in gold regardless of USD and obvious wide spead pain for equities.
