my thoughts are we will now rise to 12800 but then the downtrend...

my thoughts are we will now rise to 12800 but then the downtrend will continue to maybe as low as 11400.

reasons why we will rise from here

1. Dow had well and truly breached the lower bollinger as of close last Friday (oversold short term)
2. also at COB last Friday half of the recent bull run was given up and so that is a likely bounce point.
3. the last 2 candles almost look like a harami and this may also signal a reversal

reason the DOW may fail at 12800 and fall to 11400

1. 12800 is a resistance line
2. 12800 represents a recapture of half of last weeks loss (once again typical bounce point)
3. Most importantly. The DOWs failure was heralded by a head and shoulders pattern. It is common to see a rally back to the neckline and H&S reversal followed by a fall from the neckline equal to the distance from the peak of the head to the neckline. Opinions may vary as to what that distance is due to the noise on the chart but I think 11400 is in the ball park.

what happens then is anyones guess. Could be the end of the bear market or the world economy could fall into the abyss. I have no informed opinion on that atm.