Prior to the trade war tweets I an a lot of other bears were feeling slightly optimistic because a soft landing may have been doable.
I don't have all the maths in my head but I thought that if the balloons deflated extremely slowly the balloons may also deflate slowly rather than pop like bubbles. I was concerned about the bad debts of the EU banks never being repayable (they are not doubtful … they are bad) but of course Draghi kicked the can down the road for another 12 months …… so than an new incoming ECB president could take the blame. On that tangent the money owed by Turkey to the same said Italian banks was also a worry BUT maybe, just maybe that can would also follow Draghi's lead.
The Russian Rouble is in trouble, Brazil along with most of Central and South America is in much greater trouble (than Russia) China was slowing down with its own debt crisis and so on.
Meanwhile the Fed is raising interest rates and this will cause pressure everywhere because as the USD rises for now, bad debts denominated in USDs become even more[sic] bad.
Maybe the trade war is the straw that has broken the camels back. The local impact will be significant because of household debt.
