I don't see any safe long term havens other than fresh, scalable, innovative companies with something new and better to sell. There are many such companies for those who can get under the surface and look. In the nearer term some log jumping skills may prove useful.
Is the market rudderless or clueless or both ATM? As nobody can get a grasp on the trade war metrics and there is probably no point in doing so until we actually know what tariffs are likely to be implemented. When we do know it may be possible to consider the multiple surrounding black swans, ripple effects, elasticities and so on.
There may be some opportunities for alternative suppliers however nobody can say whether or not those opportunities will be washed away by a broader tidal wave.
Trump has only three aims …. 1. to avoid Mueller 2. to avoid true personal bankruptcy (not just chapter 11) and 3. to stay in his chair until 2020. Aims 2 and 3 are relevant here.
With Trump's consensus man running the Fed I don't expect anything more than the currently expected anaemic interest rate rises. Trump's position is helped by Draghi's decision to also kick some cans down the road until he too leaves office. After 2020, neither gentleman will give a f*&^+.I'm therefore a tad dubious about DXY in the longer term but in the short term Dopey is undoubtedly correct.
Emerging markets are poorly defined, lumped together heterogenous group. Suffice to say that there are many nations both inside and outside of the G20 group that can't pay their debts in any foreseeable circumstances and there are enough of them to push the default tidal wave into the G8 itself should rates and/or the USD materially rise. It's not just some National Socialists in Turkey owing a lot of unrepayable loans to Italian banks.
Should Trump fail to avoid Mueller, all bets are off. Pence is an economic hawk and as we don't know what Mueller has in his brief case we are left with a chook raffle styled guessing competition.
