Dow & Nasdaq - future projections, page-2

Thanks for that salus, one of the better reads I've seen in quite a while.

Pretty hard to disagree with. When the average value of a company gets to the point where it takes 45 years to produce the same figure in earnings, we are indeed in dangerous country.

Richard Russell appeared to almost be out on a limb prediction what was so obvious, I think we can expect a few more reports of this nature as the true story is revealed.

The market is not an easy one to trade at the moment, even for the bears, as intraday volatility often triggers stops. This is a sign of unusual uneasiness among investors, which at sometime will lead to panic.

We have now seen the DOW close two days running under Sep24 lows. A third day below it and the lows will become overhead resistance for the next step down. Anybody game (or foolishly stubborn) enough to try to trade the rallies should be stocked up on good supplies of valium and the coffee pot full.

We will see peroids of sharp rallies, as happens in every swing, but as bulls finally are forced to resign to the obvious we will see another phase in this bear market.
Our aussie market is far stronger than that of the US, but is still considerably overpriced and will follow the DOW, albeit in a less steep curve.

I believe our market will find bottom and swing upwards well before the DOW, as overseas investors find a need to invest elsewhere, with whatever cash they have left.
I don't believe Bush's deadline for honest accountancy will swing the market up (perhaps a rally) as this also means the figures have to be accurate and investors will begin to see the true state of affairs.

Within the last half hour I took a profit at 3030 in my latest short on the SPI, with my two other stops of 27 and 25 not being reached, and stopped out at 3040 (as posted a few days ago). As we speak we appear to be seing a short rally from the bottom trendline that has remained intact for 10 years.

I was tempted to reverse my position here, but didn't have the nerve and would wait for a higher top and bottom on the swing chart before I took a long position. At the moment I am sitting on the fence ready to attempt another short trade. The market has rallied strongly at the end of the last two days with good opportunities for traders to short near the close, but with other world markets steadily declining one wonders how long these short intraday rallies can last. If this trendline (around 3025) gets broken we will see our own market challenge Sep24 lows, and beyond that nobody knows.

Bomber