dow outlook , page-42

I have posted this elsewhere as well:

My prediction is that Christmas and New Year are not going to bode well and is predicated on the fact that the Dow PE Average is currently 12.35X.

Historically (click on my Signature link - Irrational Exuberance and then open up excel data files) the S&P PE Average is 16.34X, so we are definately in "Fair Value Territory"... BUT...

465 out of 1660 (28%) monthly SP Index PE Multiples are less than 12.35X and get down as low as 6.64X in 1982 lower pre 1940.

So... I think there is a very high liklihood that we will retrace steps and the Dow will fall less than 10x Earnings i.e Lower than 7314 for the Dow.