'markets usually crash when there are 3-5 months continuous drop in confidence'
and when there is a crashes without a 3-5 months continuous drop in confidence, it is because of a catastophic event, such as 9/11.
using economics to 'predict market timing', such as a change from a 'bear to bull' or 'bull to bear' market does not often work. that is why economist are amoung the worst stock pickers.
