Nova Star, it seems strange but it is true; generally markets have a low near years beginning, a low around the Q3 and a rally years end...or thereabouts.
Last year saw two events, the Japanese tsunami and the political squabble that brought the US credit downgrade.
Neither were predictable.
But this year Greece appears near a "gentleman's default", the EZ could easily have another bond market melt (irrespective of the QE pumped through the European banking system), violence in Tibet and/or a slowdown in Chinese growth could throttle our export industries, as the ECB interest rates drop the AUD goes up exponentially and we haven't got to the black swans and all that jazz.
The US is in a Presidential year fairyland and the FED look to have all the bases covered having exposed every trick they have.
So this year looks a mite more uneven than the last one.
The higher the US markets go the further they should fall and of course PMs seem to be running for a takeoff that has every possibility of a contrived crashing landing, mauling the average gold/silver punter.....again.
Oh well, on balance, it looks like another typical year post GFC.
