The Black Death is the only example I can think of. It's...

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31/03/20

20:48

Post #: 43806188
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Originally posted by pintohoo: ↑

One area which might be worth looking at - but, is complicate by war is

1918 --

socially - 1918 had more in common with today than 1929 did

but, any comparison is fraught with difficulties because -

1929 followed a huge boom - as today is

but, 1918 had very similar civilian conditions to today - but, had the complication of a world war -

the 1918 pandemic lead to a hell of a boom of course - which led to the mother of all busts

this particular event we are seeing is truly precedent - because we have never had a pandemic in such a technological age - and, an age with the same financial structures

it's quite possible that our entire structure will fall arse over - it's incredibly leveraged ----------- but, it's equally possible that it will survive and carry on - because we have a lot more protective systems in place

it's also complicated by algorithmic trading

IMO - picking a bottom here, which is hard at the best of times - would only be accurately possible if we got to ground level --

zip ---------- and, could go no lower and require a total rebuild

it's that complex

when we go back in history and look for examples ---------- the tulip party, 1918, 1929, both world wars ------------- nothing fits

this is like being near a rocky shore in a boat for the first time - in the dark and without a chart

fun eh?

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The Black Death is the only example I can think of. It's different this time because as a proportion of the population, far fewer people will die.
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