dow theory by tim wood, page-2

some more numbers to swish around in the brain. I was reading the other day about the 4 year bull bear cycle and then Loki01 posted this article.......It's a sign that I am to have one of my rants.

I notice the whole 4 year cycle gig is based on the notion that there are ROUGHLY 3 good years and one bear year.....or you could say roughly a ratio of 3:1. So that made me think....3:1 is very close to 3.141:1....or in other words the Pi model. One would need to embark on an exercise as large as Armstrong's project of calculating that there is an average of 3141 days between crashes to prove this.....but on that subject.....

Armstrong calculated that there is an AVERAGE of 3141 days between crashes. Some of this cycle ON AVERAGE will be a bullish period and some bearish. Applying the Pi model...

rise period (bull) = 3141*Pi/(1+Pi)

IF the Pi model is indeed appropriate to use then the AVERAGE bull period within an Armstrong cycle is.....2382 days........note that number is a fib extension of .382. So using Pi on Pi we come to a fib number once again. We know that fib numbers rule the market (and the rest of the universe) so I would not be surprised if one day Armstrong or someone like him, works out that this is indeed correct.

One other thing....Tim Woods has used DOW theory and the 4 year cycle and suggests we were in a mega bull from the 1974 low to the 2007 high. He points out in the article that the total advance in this period on the DOW was 2385%.....only 3% off that number 2382. That fact is stated a fair way into the article and I only noticed it AFTER I tried my Pi experiment.

It was just a little bit too freaky and too neat to be a coincidence I think.