loki,I'll give you my feedback on Tim Wood's comments.Here's a...

loki,

I'll give you my feedback on Tim Wood's comments.

Here's a chart I posted back in October based on my perceived view of the impact and timing of baby boomers retiring and Gen Zs ("baby busters") eventually taking up most of the investment gap caused by their retirement. My best guess of how the Dow would move in the future was based on these demographic changes (fundamentals) and on the price channels on the chart (technicals).

Note that my chart ignores cycles, armstrong calcs etc and is purely derived from the demographic changes and my analysis of the price channels already in place on the chart. So that also means the timing is only approximate.

My chart is generally consistent with Tim Wood's theory about a 2017 to 2019 low. However whether it will actually transpire we can only wait and see.

Now in terms of why there might be a 50% bounce, my chart also shows about a 50% bounce high about 2013. From a technical perspective, the reason for this is because I'm guessing we exhaust down a large channel around 2011 perhaps, we would then typically rally back to the top of that channel. I haven't thought about what might back this up from a fundamental analysis view, but it could easily turnaround just on a short-termish change in sentiment for example.

Now for comparison, Armstrong at page 30 of his "It's only Time" document has a low in mid-2011, bounce into 2015 and then a low in 2020. The low and bounce are consistent with my chart. However the 2020 low is a little off compared with about 2017 for my chart and 2017-19 for Tim Wood. Of course using broad demographics and price channels I could conceivably be out by a couple of years on the turn dates and if you use Tim Wood 's 2019 then he would then be pretty close to Armstrong.

So that means we have some "broad" consistency between Tim Wood, Armstrong and my calcs, based on 2 different cycle models, technical price channels and demographic fundamentals.

I also would be very interested in others' views on timing - using different methods - to see if we get any more consistency.