Swm's gotten smashed because its got very high debt and if earnings continue to fall it could theoretically breach a covenant. Also whilst TV earnings / ratings have been stellar in the previus few years.....this year it is going to face a resurgent Nine ( especially with olympics coverage / the voice etc..) and a resurgent Ten ( will James Warburton + packer + murdoch turn it around)? Also it the dividend for this year was guarented as it was underwritten.....the dividend for next year is not guarented / underwritten so it will likely be cut....plus i reckon the market thought it was poor form on SWM's part to release the earnings downgrade post the market close on tuesday....it they had released it on tuesday itself....i reckon the drop would not have been that severe...Another issue is the overhang on their shares on issue from KKRs holding ( not sure if this has been resolved yet...)
This is a company i like though and made a killing from last year....so i'm definately tracking it over the next few days before i get in.....it hit a low of 2.49 late last year before it started to climb so i reckon it may fall more towards that price point over the next few days....
SWM Price at posting:
$2.73 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Not Held
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