Sucks to be an FAR holder at present but like ME or not, he gave...

Sucks to be an FAR holder at present but like ME or not, he gave us a shot at gold, sadly came up short, but has positioned holders with back up plans A, B, C,D & E. No need to get too stressed by all the doomsdayer's out there, FAR holders will have other opportunities.

Plan A: News of Ophir's Senegal farm in option to be announced in only 7 weeks time will have an impact if positive. Fact: Senegal acerage is in a different basin to Kora.

Plan B: African Petroleum possible drilling in FAR's bocks with huge potential upside to FAR SP if successful. I note this has been conveniently omitted by some of the prophets out there at present. For those with a detailed knowledge of the planned AP well as referenced by Hartley's, any detailed info, if the Hartley report has any credence, would be much appreciated.

Without digging out the article I think if AP's buried hill target was a success (20% of target in FAR's Senegal acreage) it was worth around 80 cents to FAR's SP and drilling maybe in the next 6 months. For the geologists out there would this re-rate FAR's 1 bill boe "Buried Hill" target?

Again to those with knowledge in this field, are all the well drilling costs in this scenario paid by AP & it's JV partners and what if any costs are payable by FAR. I would assume that if FAR were free carried in this well (absolute bonus for FAR SH's), then if successful FAR would than contribute their proportion to production or be able to sell their 20% stake. As stated I have no idea how this would play out.

Would it be in AP's interest to make a TO bid for FAR in its current vulnerable position to consolidate acreage in Senegal?

Plan C: Planned Drilling of Sinapa 2012. No need for CSEM here (what a joke). Sinapa is logged as a 240 mill boe discovery of 36 degree crude. Careful planning is needed to produce from this discovery but with crude prices around $100 per barrel theres a lot of incentive there for Svenska to press forward. Note these 2012 wells will have production in mind.

Plan D: Drill Senegal with new JV partners (I'd like to see Hunt's original 1 Bill boe Giant Buried Hill Target drilled)

Plan E: $25 mill cash in the bank to open other doors in WA with contacts made over the last 4 years if needed.
Granted Plans A & Plan B are still dependant on Senegal Decree but I will take ME at his word as he has delivered on this in the past. If anything IMO the Kora result will speed up the process, as the Senegal Government will see the difficulty of finding oil & motivated partners.

While Kora disappointed us all credit must be given to ME for giving Share Holders a shot at a deep sea well that many said a few years ago would be impossible for a minnow like FAR. Not only has he done this but financially positioned FAR with life after Kora. No one shot wonder!

IMO it is Rocksource who have turned out to be the villain here. A lot, including myself, placed a lot of emphasis on their "Strong CSEM???" results.

Rocksource's credibility has taken a huge hit with this well and IMO they will find it difficult to sell their technology in the future. If it shows hydrocarbons are there when its not, how many possible discoveries have been missed where CSEM results were poor. The question must be asked.

It will also be interested to see who/if any supports the SP over the coming weeks as many doubted the last CR would be successful, but success surprised many. Will some of those buying back then allow FAR's SP to shrink away or will we see unknown support again - time will tell. T20 will be interesting. Was the CR success dependant on AGC or FAR's Senegal licences.

I haven't posted in a while as much time has been spent helping a sister who is way too young, slowly losing her battle with cancer. I have enjoyed reading all the posts over the last few months and can tell you after watching a loved one go through this terrible struggle, and yet be so strong, makes the Kora result pale into insignificance.

Good luck to all LT's and yes Zann & Gotta, here's hoping ME pulls something new from left field.

Anyway with tails between our legs as others gloat of their forecasts we move forward and I will leave an excerpt from one of my past posts (20th Sep 2009) after the Shell withdrawal.

"Importantly though that cash on hand still leaves FAR with an exit strategy from Senegal if required.
SP hit (approx figures) around 17 cents around June 2008 , 16 cents Aug 2009 & IMO will hit these levels again over the next 12 months so no need to make any rash decisions"

PDYOR