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09/03/17

15:17

Post #: 23221598
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Originally posted by savvyinvestor ↑

key factors driving future eps:
1) no expected further capital dilutions on the horizon
2) massive capex on new production facilities in aus and usa will mean in 2 years that much manufacturing of their products no longer has to be outsourced, thus increasing margins and profits
3) several new products (eg in dermatology range) are in their infancy in terms of sales growth and the initial prescription volumes have increased dramatically
4) new future acquisitions of generics and the 50 products in development will no doubt emerge and boost eps
5) the us investigation is short term noise with a v low risk of actual damage to myx in terms of fines/ litigation fees and us govt talk about drug margins shouldnt affect the myx portfolio as the margins are not exorbitant.
6) further operational synergies from teva allergen acquisition are yet to be realised
7) operational cash flow will improve in h2 now that acquisitions are complete which will further support eps growth
8) the mcs division has been a surprising groeth engine and should continue to expand its earnings contribution
9) the doryx loss of exclusivity affected sbd results but this effect should be less of an issue in h2 and any further drop will be more than offset by the derm sales growth i suspect.
overall im optimistic that the h2 result will be even stronger and that eps will be at least 11c for the fy, putting myx on a p/e of 13.5 at present, which is ridiculous.
ive already loaded up months ago on both myx and csl at cheaper levels, so wont be buying more now given its already up 15-20% off its lows at year end of 1.20ish. but im still happily heavily overweight these two great companies.

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How did you come up with an EPS of 11c?
If you remove the Forest Labs settlement, EPS is 4c for the first half (roughly)

MYX Price at posting: $1.32 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
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