re: att analyser ... G'day Analyser & all! First-up, apologies...

re: att analyser ...

G'day Analyser & all!

First-up, apologies for the lack of contact or response, it is partly due to the market being quite absorbing at the moment where, like many others, I have to attend to priorities & also partly due to the fact that for me it is easier to express an opinion once every so often rather than every so often ...
: )
To be brief, I will, (because I still stand by my stated opinion), follow through with a further view outlining my current interpretation & speculative conclusions from events sometime within the next couple of weeks.
I will try to compress the quantity this time without compromising the quality!
: )

Analyser, I take you at face value there mate & like many others, value & appreciate your continued input to assist others in NDO threads.
I empathise with your sentiments, so having said that, I acknowledge that you have been one of the longer serving investors in NDO and understandably from time to time, the pressure builds.
Understandably also, there are now other investors that have held positions for up to six months despite any other opportunities the market may have presented have chosen to retain such that may be now below their original entry & sitting on moderate losses.

The '100 day wrap-up report' top ten vs the current top twenty on the NDO website (allowing for the dilution that has taken place between the dates of the two) is a statement unto itself.
You stated that NDO has had the worst week for a long time, - price decline maybe yes, but eight week value weighted average says otherwise. I actually believe that it has held up remarkably well considering recent general market events/sentiments.
None of the larger positions are discreetly exiting their position only what appears to be unfortunately the smaller speculators/traders whose risk tolerances & time pressures may be less liberal.
With due respect & with-out stating the obvious, in a falling market, people are sometimes forced to sell the stocks they may believe in due to a range of variables such as capital protection, margin-calls on other positions, failed/trapped intra-day trades or simply to get a lower entry of that same position.
In that same market, experienced investors seeking valued exposure generally hang back, check the angle, gradient & lay of the ground surrounding the tree & rather than catching the apple as it falls, employ discipline, hang back & try to gauge where it will eventually roll to using it's own momentum ...
It was noted today the trade, (400,[email protected]@14:03:16hrs), was available four minutes only before off-screen absorption, first half decent parcel available for a four ticker visual, trader/investor (?) but the point that needs to be emphasised is that there are more 'mature' & 'sophisticated' investors taking NDO quite seriously now than there was six months ago.
Southern Cross Equities are still the most dominant buyer, who for & why? ...

You have understanding & respect for what D.Whitby & his team have achieved thus far, so do I, that is why he has earned the right from most investors to be taken at face value in what was stated in the Q105 quarterly & will wait for that 'near future' time period to expire, which, in fair & reasonable measures would be a two to four week period, (six weeks outside).

Relating to the time taken to achieve funding in this environment, (ie oil @ >US$50bl), I believe that if NDO hadn't of allowed the full permissible time period to be exhausted before conducting due diligence & submitting their proposal to the JV, then they may have been remiss or irresponsible in their fiduciary duties.
To further expand on that point, despite what-ever 'opportunity costs'* we may have experienced in that delay, it has to be understood absolutely that NDO is at arguably the most crucial stage of a development cycle that may transform them into what could very well be a significant oil producing entity in the relative short-term, ie. 3-5 yrs & by 'significant' I mean larger market capitilisations than referred to in those assumption reward tables though I am sure that you are aware of all of this.
Galoc is the key to generating unquantifiably substantial earnings within twelve months to assist with the exploration, development & realisation of current & future assets so it cannot be overstated ...
I'm sure that management are aware that they have one shot at this development so they better get it right, I believe that they will ...
They had better get the biggest fish possible involved whether directly or indirectly at this early stage of regional asset rationalisation ...
If they have five proposals, to cut it it to three but still entertain what-ever comes their way & to then create & encourage competitive reflection between those proposals that remain ...
To negotiate obviously the best possible outcome for the company & to triple check all variables concerning the practical implementation of said proposal(s) ...
etc ...
All of this takes time ... time to travel, time to submit, time to review & evaluate, time to amend, time to resubmit to their financiers & so on till finally it rests in the hands of the JV itself, & guess what, they need time to make a decision! ...
This is all unfortunately necessary at this stage and becomes tougher for the smaller players for whom the greater burden of risk weighs constant as time moves on.
Two years down the track when the Galoc field has been successfully exploited/utilised & NDO has AUD$X in the bank with constant cash-flows & good regional relations, yes, as the exploration operator stick to the time structure presented when you have the weight & the resources to plan & implement such but right now I think they deserve a little more latitude ...

Simply speaking, this post is to state that my investment position, sentiment & confidence in NDO remains unchanged & I believe that in light of all your effort & energies, so should yours be, at least for the 'near future' there mate.

Anyway, tis very late!
Warm regards to all & good luck!
: )




P.S - Ladora's statement is actually, (please correct me if I am wrong!), parallel with the 'Zurich Axiom' ...
: )
Despite most financial philosophies operating within the paradigm that portfolio asset diversification is an integral key to asset growth & more importantly, asset protection, the Zurich Axiom actually encourages one to keep all their eggs in as few a baskets as possible, the only thing the investor has to do ...
is be right!
: )





* - 'Opportunity-costs' will exist as long as one is active in the market - sh#t happens always with time-line investment structures!
: )