Suspect it will continue to go lower for the mo'. The 1st half...

Suspect it will continue to go lower for the mo'.


The 1st half results weren't that encouraging, sales are holding up and I think Neil said they don't need to grow sales, ... they just need to improve margins. Hopefully that improvement in margins (via lower costs) will start to show up in the 2nd half.

But it's a long wait until the 2nd half year (/Full Year ) accounts are released. And the 2nd half results need to turnaround dramatically otherwise they could be reporting a FY loss.

For example if you were to add the net profits for the 1st half year for 15/16 just reported of $4m to the 2nd half year loss for last year 14/15 of $8m - you'd end up with a full year potential loss of $4m for this coming year if nothing were to change in the 2nd half of this year from the 2nd half of last year.

However it gets worse as interest costs on their debt for the 2nd half of this year could be around $2.5-3m higher than last year due to F/X impacts (if the AUD stays low), so the potential loss goes up to a possible $7m.

Now Neil has said that Jan/Feb earnings are up on last year, so that's a start and hopefully their savings will come into play and hopefully they can avoid a loss, but I can't see a big profit being made either for the Full Year.

Also Quiksilver will be sorting itself out and coming out all guns blazing this year after nearly avoiding chapter 11 last year, so that small gain in market share Billabong gained last year may be eroded this year.