As Bad As It Gets? Monday Evening Liqueurs. 24 August, 2015.
Is this as bad as it gets? Well, since the end of the GFC, we’ve only had one comparable experience – early August, 2011.
Only three times since the end of the GFC has the AdvanceVolume/DeclineVolume Ratio been below 10%. The first time was in August, 2011 when the AdVol/DeclVol Ratio got down to 2.44%. Then on 12 September, 2011 it got down to 9.54%.
Today, the AdvanceVolume/DeclineVolume was 6.66%. Those of a biblical persuasion will read that as the Devil’s Number. Yes - the Apocalypse is upon us.
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Actually - this just looks like a washout.
Another sign that this was a washout, was the number of unchanged stocks. Any time the number of unchanged stocks falls below 300, it’s time to think the market has reached a bottom. Everything was being thrown out – including the baby in the wash-tub. Today’s unchanged number was 267 – well under the 300 threshold.
Volume was high. Not extreme – I would have liked to see a volume figure higher than today – but maybe it is high enough.
My Volume-Weighted XAO Oscillator is now at its lowest point since 5 August, 2011.
Now – it’s always possible that we can see lower prices – but the probabilities now lie with a bottom either today or the next couple of days.
Will that be THE BOTTOM? The experience in 2011 suggests that it will take some weeks of basing action before any meaningful uptrend can be called.
Here’s the chart for the XJO:
Yep – today was crook.
It was so crook that the Stock Market was the lead story on tonight’s ABC News at 7.00 p.m. It started off by saying that umpteen gazillion dollars were wiped off the Australian stock market today. Yep it was a REALLY, REALLY BIG NUMBER – which meant nothing to me or you – but it sure was a BIG NUMBER.
Another pointer to a probable low in the next day or two.
Good luck if you’re hanging in there.
hmmmm. I think I hear a Jazz Band playing "When the Saints Go Marching In."
RB.
(20min delay)