IMO the the only significant negative affecting TAP ATM is the two legal cases. Don't know how they will go - and I suspect that no one on HC does either. But take a look at the other oilers - they are all down ATM (is TAP down more than most? - I don't think so)
As for TAP being only a 'real-estate' agent, people have made a lot of money out of real-estate (more so than the share market over recent years!). Does it matter if TAP sells a good asset for a good price? I think they did well with the Zola discovery.
I see TAP as maintaining a foothold in production (and future cashflow) through the Thai acquisition - it was a good fit in terms of the capacity of TAP. Zola might require too much capital - who knows at this stage. So a sale could be the best outcome. Nothing has yet been announced.
As for Ghana, this is potential blue sky. A company like TAP will never amount to much unless it get's lucky with exploration. They haven't been that lucky to date - except Zola - and it is largely about luck - doing the numbers - and that is why they have not become cashflow positive). Ghana seems to me to be as good an area as any, with potential for blue sky (but yes, high risk).
Oil and gas is like that. Most companies never make the big time. I think TAP is being upfront in its releases and strategy. If you don't like it, go elsewhere. I cant work out why some folk spend so much time commenting on companies they don't hold.If you want regular returns and positive cashflow (but with no blue sky potential) go somewhere else. Oil and gas plays are always going to be speculative, that's how it is. I have a small holding of TAP in a diversified portfolio. It might get lucky.
TAP Price at posting:
62.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
