I'm considering buying more UBI and wanted to run a downside...

I'm considering buying more UBI and wanted to run a downside case and see what other posters thought.

Simple valuation
Assumes lump sum payout is exercised immediately and the xprecia stride is a dud and earns no money any time soon. Figures come from the 10Q form posted 31st October.

Expected cashflows (From Oct 16 to Dec 17)
- $78M lifescan QSF and lump sumb - refer to snippet below on how this is calculated
- $6.5M R&D Tax grant (best guess)
- ($16M) R&D expenses (best guess)
- ($9M) General, admin and finance expenses (best guess)
- Cashflows after Dec 17 would be near zero (other than R&D grant) given the assumption on the xprecia stride above

Assets and liabilities
- $25M Current cash and receivables
- $0 plant and equipment (shareholders wont see a cent of this if we got into a liquidation fire sale)
- ($26M ) current liabilities and debt (note I have no idea how to include the $4.4M of deferred revenue here so have ignored it)

Total worst case valuation ~$58.5M
Current market cap around $55M

My question is - can you add any points that make the worst case scenario even worse? Or point out any errors in my simplistic valuation?

The upside case looks a lot more like the recent veritas valuation significantly above my worst case scenario.

Thanks!

Notes from 10Q form on a potential scenario on QSFs and lump sum payment from lifescan, page 28.
"By way of illustration only, if the growth trend in quarterly service fees continues, there is a scenario in which cumulative quarterly service fees could reach US$45 million at September 30, 2017. Assume under this scenario, LifeScan gives notice to Universal Biosensors on October 1, 2017 that it is exercising its option to convert the quarterly service fees. If quarterly service fees for the financial year 2017 total US$17.5 million (with US$4 million from October 1 to December 31, 2017) and LifeScan elects to pay the one-time lump sum fee at the earliest possible date being January 1, 2018, we would receive US$59.4 million (equivalent to A$77.8 million) in payments under the Master Services and Supply Agreement from October 1, 2016. "