"pose a question to people here to get a true understanding of...

"pose a question to people here to get a true understanding of what the downside risk of Samo not coming in is"

Coming onto this forum to get a "true understanding" is an oxymoron.

You want to get an understanding and you want this forum to make it true??

I have taken every opportunity I get to go to the FAR presentations and talks in order to meet Cath and the team for questioning. I call them once a month to get clarity on announcements and progress and I still wouldnt be able to give you a true understanding.

Research by forums is a dangerous game....what the forums offer are insights, opinions and some very good sleuth work........

What you seem to be seeking are opinions on shareprice movements surrounding certain eventualities....

The sands in Samo have been drilled 9 times and are VERY well understood, they are modeled and recognized, by good seismic, to be very thick and we know what their flow rates are like...The oil kitchen is prolific and produces abundant and excellent high quality oils.....the sands are up on a shelf in a geographic level that sits above the oil water cut indentical to a proven oil field a few miles to the north....the cap is the same cap that is holding in the oil just a few miles away.....

That my friend is what gives confidence.....why 50-50? because they dont know what lies between that cap and the defined, and so-called "oil/water level"...it might have been oil and it has since departed up to the shallow traps near The Gambian coastline?????

You have been advised that the SP will take a hit and then recover and I think that is good opinion. We have not had our contingent oil found at SNE allocated to reserves yet.....and our SP does not reflect that. IMO. Once we get funding sorted and we get booked reserves you will see another class of investor step up to FAR.

I would also like to say here that once the reserves are booked you could quite easily see some of the majors look at FAR and Cairn as a way to increase the reserves on their books.... especially in an environment of depleted reserves from lack of exploration and where the cost of rigs are starting to escalate in an environment of higher oil prices....in other words we will look primed for a takeover. Possibly in conjunction with Cairn selling down SNE

Get your calculator out and research what reserves are worth then add in a bit of fluff for the ground we hold along with cash at bank and you will quickly work out our true valuation.....

It will be that valuation that we should return to in the event of a SP pullback from a bad result at SAMO..

Different companies with differing circumstances require different views.

Good luck whichever way you go.