FAR far limited

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SP will definitely fall in short term but most on here would...

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kbrown4515

2,380 Posts.

1113

25/09/18

16:22

Post #: 35831363
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Originally posted by SimonS78 ↑

I wanted to pose a question to people here to get a true understanding of what the downside risk of Samo not coming in is.
I’ve seen a lot of shoot-from-the-hip comments such as, “Samo-1 is a free-hit”, zero-downside, 50% COS = massive chance of a good pay-off

I believe these are seriously dangerous claims with no support or actual reasoning behind them. The market knows that FAR is drilling a well. The market knows the prospect's risked reserves. Once the market is updated on any change to these (e.g. by Far sticking a great big dirty hole through the middle of the thing, then logging it), the market will adjust the shareprice accordingly.

If we look at how the market has responded to the following two recent analogs

a 15% COS duster – PCL down by half

a 70% CoS – Dubious results on PS-3, may actually be deemed a success by way of Pg, but not a commercial success – CVN down by 1/3^rd

in both these recent examples the market has clearly priced in the negative results. What makes FAR so special that u don’t think it will happen to them?

So, moving on, I have two questions

we have a 50% COS….but what do we think the likelihood of a commercial success actually is? I’ve seen a lot of Geo’s call a sniff of oil a success case, but nothing ever produced. Just look at PS-3 and its results to understand the difference between commercially viable success vs geological chance of success

Assuming that Samo -1 is not a commercial success (e.g. hydrocarbons found, but net pay just not there in sufficient quantity to justify development), where will we see the shareprice back-track to?

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SP will definitely fall in short term but most on here would agree 12c currently undervalues SNE alone so should recover.

If oil prices hold, project milestones are reached and barrels booked, with financing sorted with debt/equity and maybe a CR,.....but zero downside as far as I can see from 12c.

Further upside is PE, ERIN% and future potential areas.

Crazy, isn't it.....you should've been here at 7c!!!
FAR Price at posting: 11.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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(20min delay)
Last 37.0¢		Change 0.000(0.00%)		Mkt cap ! $34.19M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
0.0¢	0.0¢	0.0¢	$0	0

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
2	266	37.0¢

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
38.0¢	3420	1

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
2	266	0.370
3	91523	0.365
2	35887	0.360
1	25000	0.355
3	181997	0.350

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.385	16000	1
0.390	1191	1
0.400	11030	3
0.410	33333	1
0.420	20000	1

Last trade - 16.21pm 18/07/2025 (20 minute delay)

FAR (ASX) Chart

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