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Whisky49

13,925 Posts.

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25/09/18

16:33

Post #: 35831648
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Originally posted by SimonS78 ↑

I wanted to pose a question to people here to get a true understanding of what the downside risk of Samo not coming in is.
I’ve seen a lot of shoot-from-the-hip comments such as, “Samo-1 is a free-hit”, zero-downside, 50% COS = massive chance of a good pay-off

I believe these are seriously dangerous claims with no support or actual reasoning behind them. The market knows that FAR is drilling a well. The market knows the prospect's risked reserves. Once the market is updated on any change to these (e.g. by Far sticking a great big dirty hole through the middle of the thing, then logging it), the market will adjust the shareprice accordingly.

If we look at how the market has responded to the following two recent analogs

a 15% COS duster – PCL down by half

a 70% CoS – Dubious results on PS-3, may actually be deemed a success by way of Pg, but not a commercial success – CVN down by 1/3^rd

in both these recent examples the market has clearly priced in the negative results. What makes FAR so special that u don’t think it will happen to them?

So, moving on, I have two questions

we have a 50% COS….but what do we think the likelihood of a commercial success actually is? I’ve seen a lot of Geo’s call a sniff of oil a success case, but nothing ever produced. Just look at PS-3 and its results to understand the difference between commercially viable success vs geological chance of success

Assuming that Samo -1 is not a commercial success (e.g. hydrocarbons found, but net pay just not there in sufficient quantity to justify development), where will we see the shareprice back-track to?

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You are asking questions that can't be answered...you are either in or out and will find out after the the results of drilling..you will certainly get opinions but which one will you want to believe ...

It's little use in comparing FAR with PCL they have no commercial back up project and CVN have just retraced off a spike that was unsustainable in the short term ....

Cheers Whisky
FAR Price at posting: 11.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
13 Upvote

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Last 37.0¢		Change 0.000(0.00%)		Mkt cap ! $34.19M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
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No.	Vol.	Price($)
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