I think the answer is quiet simpleThe CoS is 100% as I am...

I think the answer is quiet simple

The CoS is 100% as I am betting that Samo will be claimed as a success

The COCS is 5%, examples of CoS but COCS failures in the area are SNE north, FAN south and FAN 1.

The only reason I believe the chance of commercial success (COCS) is as high as 5% is because of SNE containing so much oil and is close to Samo. If SNE north and FAN South could not be tied back to SNE (i.e. more than 35KM away) they would have no value in today's market as they are by themselves are less than the minimum commercial quantity of 200 mb

I know that the above statement about FAN 1 (Beer) being a failure would upset some HC posters as that discovery has not been appraised and therefore we don't really know what we have. The fact that the JV have shelved FAN 1 is the reason I called it a failure, when it gets apprised in 2020 the outcome (at least I'm hoping) could be very different.

So if the outcome of drilling is a poor results it will cause the SP to drop to anywhere between 6c to 10c. Once the JV completes FID for SNE the SP should be back to 12c to 24c. The 24c is based on 80mb at $12.5 USD with a conversion rate of .75 to AUD, as this is what CNE stated the NPV of oil would be at FID

Then again the SP may drop down to 2c and stay there as I have no qualification to make the above statements, but if brokers can issue advise that people on here relied on for PCL where they stated that the value of oil found would be valued at $12 pb even though not in commercial quantities (they hope to find 124mb) or apprised then I believe there are more qualified HC posters than stockbrokers (the PCL broker reports where a joke)

If you are unhappy with the chance of SP dropping to 2c then maybe time for other investments as this is a high risk investment and the SNE success is more like winning lotto for FAR. Its easy if you know the numbers before hand

Zip OFL