Ok now I'm really confused. Close at 61c after due diligence completed, which I believed to be the primary risk to date (by a long shot).
If banks don't roll over finance, obviously it will take long for them to receive funds. However, there might be some shady dealings going on, and they might force administration - shareholders get screwed over all the time, nothing new here.
However, how is it possible the assets would go for less than the bid by MM once it enters administration? Bidders cannot pick up the assets on the cheap, because they will have to stump up at least what MM has on offer. The only scenario is MM buying the assets cheaper (virtually no competition from other bidders). But even so, I can't see them going substantially cheaper (indeed why not just bid 50c right now?). A price has been put on the company, and I can't see it reducing significantly from here unless economic situation changes rapidly (further crashing in metals).
Most importantly, has there *ever* been a precedent where a takeover bid has been launched, followed be virtually immediate administration where assets go for significantly less than the bid? I think they would have a tough time explaining their rationale behind this (which could leave them open to litigation).
This leaves the issue of FIRB approval. If the takeover is rejected, I guess that means all bets are off - although maybe MM could go for a stake (what they initially planned) instead of full purchase. In any case, things have been left woefully late. Say FIRB rejects deal, then BHP picks up most of the company for half the price - I'm not sure that's the kind of PR the government will like.
Does anyone reasonably think shareholders could come out with 0c in the dollar, without rapid adverse changes in economic climate? How could administrators justify selling for so much less, when the money was within their grasp (and could be received sooner)?
I'm seeing the downside as marginal when contrasted to upside, but cannot comprehend current depressed price. Maybe I'm missing something, though won't be long to find out.
The other potential is shareholders vote down takeover, but not sure that's a risk (as if the company is still around at that time, half the battle is won).
OZL Price at posting:
$6.10 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
