Downside?, page-636

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MirCat

9,597 Posts.

84

05/09/23

17:06

Post #: 69741188
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Originally posted by Nez: ↑

Okay cool. Definitely not up ramping here just giving an example why it may not fall out of bed, though I could be very wrong and your macro speculation rodgering may be very right.
WHC retraced almost perfectly 50% of the previous rise, which is to be expected after a somewhat blowoff rise Jul to Sep22 - you can look up Gann 50% rule if you want to. So according to that theory (which is not guaranteed to always work) WHC prices have an opportunity for a nice upward rise. Also an inverse head & shoulders pattern is patiently awaiting confirmation and fruition.
Coal prices have retraced further, as shown in the second chart, though so far has found a strong level of support along the previous highs & the 78.6 fib retracement.
Further, total exports of thermal coal are expected to increase to 1 099 Mt (+5.2%) in 2023 & metallurgical coal exports are forecast to reach 340 Mt (+11%) in 2023 - possibly why NHC has been slighting stronger and retraced slightly less - with total coal trade expected to approach the record volumes seen in 2019. It's projected around 1335 Mt which would surpass the 1331 Mt record reached in 2019.
The spot forecast outlook remains strong though a flat projection as shown in the bottom graph, this is where our friend @MirCat will be grateful the BB increased WHC EPS moving forward and brought value to his shares, as the forecasted coal prices may not provide the push in the share price.
Great if you could expand on the rodgering macro reasons view as the more information we have the better armed we are to make more informed decisions. The current setup could likely allow for a few weeks of downward pressure which would be great for a double bottom, honestly, that's my worst case outlook here, hence my stop below that level as that would signal likely further losses.

All complete speculation on my part as well so definitely not advice. GLA cheers.

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To complicated for me!
But my gut feeling it will range around the $5 to $6 bucks and the total yearly dividend in the long term be no higher than 55 cents next year.

WHC Price at posting: $6.34 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
2 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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