Judging by your post in the HC forum, I think you are doing better with the more speculative end of the stock. EXT is basically not a trading stock, tightly held and I can clearly see a strong support in the $5.9 - $6 level. # of daily stock traded by the total FPO is minute and with a price tag of over $6 is cause for traders to move to more news generated quick trade profitable opportunities. However I can see from a risk/reward angle that shorting EXT has its merits on lower risks with the 'strong' downtrend. Nothing goes down forever and vice versa as has been demonstrated by the 'fall from grace' since $11.
If it holds today, it is telling me that the down trend might be broken by simple trend line break. This will also be bollinger band initial breakout and more importantly penetration of the 50day SMA. Coupled with the potential short covering rally for added rally strength and the ERA having to buy 5K tonnes from spot market and the strong fundamentals of their indicated JORC, you need "balls" to call a $4ish level. On record if it ever gets to that level, I will be readying as much cash as I can to buy at these level because the market will be blind to the compelling fundamentals, all economic conditions being constant bar GFC2. You may be correct but I am weighing the odds and it is telling me otherwise.
Cheers,
AJ
EXT Price at posting:
$6.64 Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
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