A lot of this is guesswork and a fair amount of unknown. The only few things I do know with confidence are as below
A) Long term trend of Iron Ore is around $80 or a bit above. Current pricing is non-sustainable and will rebound. Does that mean 1 year from now it will have? No guarantee but it will happen at some stage.
B) Orica has near its lowest price point ever (outside of the GFC) lows. Orica is a well run business in challenging times and the price is depressed as a result. its not the darling/favourite. But when times are good again Orica can easily be mid 20's to almost 30's again pretty quick.
Will it be $21 soon? Absolutely no idea. Although it stands to reason when we go ex-dividend Orica will plum the depths of mid to low 17's "just because" (aka shorters and offloading after divy).
I'd wager Orica is back around 20-21 by Jan-Feb next year providing the outlook for 2015 improves just a tad because right now its highly uncertain.
I guess to wrap it all up......given orica's long term pricing history it really can't fall a great deal more than where it is. But there is plenty of upside if things improve.
ORI Price at posting:
$18.32 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
A personalised tool to help users track selected stocks. Delivering real-time notifications on price updates, announcements, and performance stats on each to help make informed investment decisions.
(20min delay)