Dangerous in this market to call a break out when it passes $46...

Dangerous in this market to call a break out when it passes $46 on one day only, particularly after jumping 10% in a few days. Banks shot up this week on not much news besides May and Freddie bail out and a drop in oil that may prove to be temporary.

PE of around 12 is low historically yet not ridiculously low, particularly given that we don't know how future years earnings will be affected. Reporting over the next few weeks may shed some light on that. Property market dropped in June, yet not much press on that yet. Potential for effects of more mortage stress and further write offs from poor investments. Could get better, could get worse. Easy to doll up financial statements for one year, hard to sustain.

Not saying it won't hit $50 this year, yet I don't think it will in the next few weeks anyway. Does anyone really know where it will head? Won't be jumping in until clearer buy signals. If I re-enter will be taking quick profits and avoid holding overnight. I would expect sideways movement ($39.50-$46) until new substantial news either way -which may be end of year results released in August. That's my view. No expert.