Normally I'd agree with you, but Mr Market doesn't value options, computer models do. And the Expected future price of DOW shares does not come into it, only
1) the current price
2) the time to expiry
3) the strike price
4) the expected volatility
If the market thought that the chance of DOW being over $5.95 by April 18 was highly remote, then I highly doubt it would be trading at $5.80 now. (why would the market price a share at $5.80 when there's only a slim chance of a 3% gain, and a high chance of a price much lower than $5.80)
$5.80 is the market agreed price, and so the chance of it moving 5% in either direction are closely equal.
As barry731 stated this is a 1 cent punt where you can expect to lose all your investment, and I'm certainly under no illusions (and reducing my investment amount accordingly). But I'm considerably up on my investments this year, so still only using a fraction of this surplus - need to keep the FOMO and the SANF in balance with the DOWR trade.
So yes, its a roll of the dice where if a 6 comes up, you get a 10-50 time payback but roll anything else, you lose. So a punt, it definitely is, but its a calculated punt, where the expected return of all outcomes is a very positive enough number that's hard to ignore.
Anyway , this is probably a bit cerebrally heavy for me on a weekend night so I'll leave it until Monday where I might be able to double down on DOWR at half a cent, and then forget about it until Apr 18.
DOW Price at posting:
$5.79 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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