Dr Loi, I'm curious as have just been pondering a paper on COVID 19. I posted this elsewhere:
When I see media hysteria and colourful stories about toilet paper, I feel compelled to bottom out some proportionate and verifiable facts.
The tally today, as I check it - globally is 4,983 deaths and 70,383 recoveries, out of total of 134,748identifiedcases.
Of course, not just the media, politicians and Institutions are also busy "managing perceptions" too.
Extrapolating off current numbers, UK public health officials yesterday warned of 500,000 deaths in UK, peaking in May/June for example.
Globally, that would multiply to 50,000,000 deaths, doubling the normal overall global death rate.
That's ten thousand times the current COVID19 total.
Quite scary, especially as we see the global economy reeling alongside it.
So I was pleased to see a distant relative, expert inEpidemiology, has just written a paper on the predictable spread and fatality of COVID 19, based on the vast data, knowledge and experience of characteristically similar viruses.
It seemsa frank, well-founded, candid assessment,
It also makes honestly clear what you can do, personally, to most effectively assist your own survival.
Here are key bullet points:
COVID19 is highly contagious. Add to that, many carriers are hard to identify as clear symptoms often don't show for a while, or not at all.
A bit of a sore throat and fatigue is nothing unusual in winter conditions.
COVID 19 has many channels of infection - even relentless, scrupulous hand washing and disinfecting of every surface will not stop air-borne infection, for example.
The fact that COVID 19 is usually not lethal or disabling also means it's carriers have plenty of opportunity to spread it.
(Thankfully, swift deadly diseases are typically easier to control by containment, as they more efficiently disable or kill off their hosts, and symptoms too are quickly identifiable. COVID 19 is not one of these).
Truthfully, for this profile of virus, a strategy of containment and quarantine is of very limited impact.
So what is the pointof the quarantine and socio-economic shut-down strategies being pursued in the case of COVID 19? (Apart from making governments and prestigious institutions look pro-active and useful.)
The best hopes behind any public policy of containment is that extreme measures will delay COVID's spread. The goal is for infections to be pushed into the future - resulting in a less pronounced spike, acting over a longer term.
Delaying the spread, slowing the rate of infection, buys time for scientists and healthcare professionals.
And there's the hope that northern summer will also help slow the spread.
Ultimately, however, the time bought may only be counted in weeks.
Put simply, you cannot isolate every human being from every other human being for ever. Whatever you do, the highly contagious flu will spread, sooner or later.
Looking Forward:
The great mother of all public policy hopes is that an effective vaccine will be ready for Autumn 2020.
Also, that more will have been learnt about identifying and treating cases, especially those threatening fatality.
Is that realistic?
In general, effective vaccines are still very hard to develop. The success rate is patchy and a development period of about 18 months is usual. But we can pray, cross our fingers, and try our very best.
While the most promising cures so far are blood plasma based antivirals that come from AIDS research - they are very expensive, and limited, and will probably only be available to an "elite" few.
Even if both hopes do have some impact, the next northern winter is likely to see a reprise of the epidemic (spreading for not just half the winter, as we have now, but the whole winter, from a bigger base).
Essentially, in the next year or two, whatever measures are taken, the vast majority of humans will have been exposed to this flu, likely several times.
The survivors will likely develop a degree of immunity (the degree of which is yet to be clarified. Some viruses, like dengue, are actually more deadly the second time around).
Frontline Healthcare staff will be likely amongst the first to catch COVID 19, but the immunity they gain from recovery will mean they are back at work by the time the virus leaps the chasm into mass infection - quite useful from a public health management point of view.
Once 60% to 70% of a population group has survived and developed immunity, infection rates will be significantly slowed.
COVID19 will eventually become just another clapped out flu virus amongst the uncountable number of others.
Side-Effects:
So most likely, the economy crippling efforts to contain COVID 19, will only slow it's spread a little.
And these measures being taken have significant downsides in general health terms.
Production losses, supply chain breakdowns, loss of wages, reduced social services efficacy, mental health issues, all have a significant impact on public health outcomes that could well render over-reaction to COVID 19 counter-productive, even if it is "politically essential".
Compare the 4,983 COVID19 deaths to date, to the 2,578,808 (very normal) total deaths recorded by communicable disease so far this year = <0.2% of the total.
Is this tiny impact in itself slowing the world economy, or is it the reaction? How many deaths will be caused as a result of the socio-economic regression caused?
Just one small example:
There's talk of nursing home carers being required to always stay at least 3 meters away from all residents to avoid infection. For how many months, or years? Will this ultimately stop the spread, or just delay it? And importantly, what massive neglect will this non-solution cause? How many avoidable deaths from the "precautions"?
It would be futile madness.
So what's the Good News?
While WHO's most recent data shows a 3.4% death rate for reported cases, COVID 19's ultimate fatality rate currently being touted at 1 to 2%.
Putting aside high-speculation about mutating super-strains, it looks on par with many a bad strain of flu.
Even then, that low rate is questionable. So many cases identified have had mild or barely noticed symptoms (81% of reported cases).
Almost certainly, many mild cases are simply not reported, particularly in countries with limited public health for the masses (like Iran).
Unreported cases could in fact hugely outnumber the reported, while actual fatalities are reported, leading to a wildly overstated fatality rate.
How many real cases are out there, too mild to be bothered with?
As more is known about COVID19, the less fatal it's likely to be discovered to be.
WHAT CAN YOU DO FOR YOURSELF AND THOSE AROUND YOU?
It's most probable you are going to be exposed to it sometime. Whatever is done, whatever you do, sooner or later, you'll likely meet up with the virus, probably several times.
Even if you are a total phobic hygiene nut, it will likely get through to you.
Luckily for most, COVID 19's been no more serious than a mild flu.
Ideally, I want to be in that81%+++of cases who will only get sniffles, a touch of flu, and from that get the priceless gift of immunity!
Quite simply what matters most is your immune system.
Be healthy, well rested, and boost your immune system. It's something you can actually influence.
For example in China, the male death rate inconfirmedcases, is 4.7%, the female 2.8% - the biggest driver of that is thought to be the link to smoking. More Chinese males smoke - known to complicate respiratory illnesses.
Your general health, and the robustness your own immune system will matter far more than all the public policy, economic shut-downs, and personal hygiene combined.
And please, there's no point worrying about what you can't control.
Keep living life, be healthy - especially keep the economy, infrastructure and social services strong and functioning - because that in itself will save lives.
(20min delay)