I remember BB responding on the last investor call to a question from a large investor with no discernable hesitation that 4 sales were on the cards for calendar 2018.
I distinctly remember the volume (4 units), I am 90% as to the timing being by 31 December 2018. Someone else may be able to confirm.
From my prior reading of the back and forth over the last 12 or so months I've been a SH and follower of LBT and from the information discussed above, I was expecting that Dr W being such a large lab to purchase multiple units. I calculate 3. APAS does 200 plates an hour. Assume 8 hours a day cause you can't load 5000 plates into APAS currently to run overnight. 5000 / 1600 = 3.125.
I think it is worth reminding ourselves of some previously released information that will provide a fuller picture of the landscape and aid in deducing potential timing:
- There is at least 1 Australian lab that sounded keen and, from what BB said on the last investor call, working with LBT to develop the product (presumably on the analysis module). BB won't tell us who they are but I think I read somewhere they were major. I would expect them to purchase. If I was to guess its a pathology lab but I don't know.
- Dr W got APAS installed in April but were to START their assessment in September. Not sure reason.
- Dr W are submitting a paper (similar to St Vincent's) for consideration to the same European conference LBT was at this year for next year (2019)
- We are repeatedly told of the 12+ month timeframe required for these labs to make purchasing decisions.
I would therefore expect 4 units at least:
Dr W: 3
Unknown Aust Lab: 1+
Timing-wise I am not expecting sales by end of 2018 but I do like how things are unfolding. Of course I would like them to go faster, we all would, but it looks like LBT could well become a mini-Cochlear and that is worth waiting for.
Now i should point out this is just me trying to connect the dots. I have no insider knowledge having had only one 5 minute conversation with BB.
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