treefern, good post, I agree with the sentiment. However we are yet to be shown the path we will be taking. Apparently, that is next week. Morrison said this is the suppression phase, so I think we may be transitioning into the mitigation phase next which may perhaps be more geared towards nelsonjm's approach.
I'm ignoring the handling up to now and I'm not wanting to pass judgement because we are in a fix with a force majeure lumped upon our social contract. We were told this week that they believed it was here to stay. Many epidemiologists would disagree.
I think we will be tossing aside the eradication path hastily due to imperfect computer modelling and/or political outlook. If we were to go hard and eradicate it at this point we would return to a very high functioning domestic economy with full freedoms within our borders, stimulus money and the unleashed consumption bonanza of a population trapped on its own shores and government encouragement to 'spend for Australia'. No other approach I can see will offer that in the next 18 months. Intuitively, I feel this will generate the highest national economic gains in the short and long run.
In 18 mths, even if no vaccine, the rapid improvements in treatments will in all likelihood see the mortality rate reduced substantially and then we could rapidly catch up to our peers who have chosen the herd immunity path. There is risk that we will fall behind our peers temporarily if they have higher immunity levels earlier than us but even with herd immunity the population isn't free of virus concerns, as with measles, it can be travelled back in and any non-immune person (up to 40% of the population) is still at risk of infection.
It's an important time for all of us to sit with pen and paper and try to find a way through the impasse, understanding and testing the many options and 'what ifs'. Not to be solely led but to think. I hope this important conversation can be had with clear and reasonable heads.
