Hi
@travted2000. I think I know where you are going with this, but my view has always been based on the assumption (which I have) that there is already an existing side deal signed by Todd/BBIG and the Chinese funders. I think it would state that it is a 50/50 JV and as such neither party would have "control". I can't see why either the Chinese Funders or Todd/BBIG would give away control and end up with a 44/56 arrangement. They could certainly make an adjustment by doing a placement or Rights Issue etc to make it back to 50/50 simply enough. I must admit surprise at one presentation last year which suggested that the Chinese funding partner would own 50% but have no voting rights. That has not shown up in any of the recent documents.
Your situation would work if someone wanted to outlay for the 44% minority interests and were then happy to pony up for the rest of the construction/financing.. That would favour someone without an existing deal but leave Todd as a minority. The Chinese funders have probably already agreed upon the money needed and not a penny more and this strategy of yours would probably impose extra capital requirements on Todd. The challenge for Todd has been to secure the PIOP for that 50/50 J/V and the cost to do so was Todd's. I think by now it is obvious the Chinese funders are not writing any cheques until the whole project can be delivered.
As I mention above, these are purely my own assumptions which I have made from reviewing the various presentations, offers and comments that have been made over the years. I could be very wrong and we will not know that until it is too late for FMS shareholders as we would only probably find out when the Todd/Chinese project gets to FID and they approach the Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB) for approval. For all we know they have already sounded out the FIRB many years ago and are working within some loose guidelines.
Anyone ever looked on the FIRB website ?
As a result my view is that this is effectively a big game of chicken or Mexican standoff and whoever blinks loses !! If Todd can't secure the ore then the whole mine/port/rail project fails and the Chinese walk (at no cost). However if Todd get it up, they will be handsomely rewarded for years to come with no further capital outlays. So Todd in my view has everything to win and lose. I don't figure they intend losing, hence they keep coming back with another deal. Don't worry about the WA rail deal, there has to be a time limit that the Chinese funders want this completed by. The Chinese are traditionally patient investors but even they must be getting impatient.
