Drakes holding.

Guys been crunching numbers on calculated timeframe when drake will be selling out, until we get more ASX Ann re substantial holders movement I have used the information that is on hand to come up with the following conclusion.

Drakes holdings = 465,000,000 initially.

26/9/2014 173mil shares traded on axiom drake reduced holdings by 95mil or 55% of the days total volume, drakes holdings down to 370,049,456 shares.

30/9/2014 89.5mil shares traded on that day with drake selling 80,049,456 or a whopping 89% of the shares traded that day. Drakes holdings now reduced to 290,000,000 or the equivalent of 8.94%.
using a rule of thumb that if only 50% of the volume traded is drake selling (I presume 85%-90% personally) I have come up with the following conclusions.

October 1: 119mil traded, if 50% of the volume traded is drake then they now hold 230mil

October 2: 25mil traded, if 50% of the volume traded is drake then they now hold 217.5mil

October 3: 21.5mil traded, if 50% of the volume traded is drake then now they hold 206mil

October 6: 22mil, 50%= 195mil left

October 7: 14mil, 50%= 188mil left for drake

October 8: 13.5mil, 50%= 181mil left for drake

October 9: 88.6mil, 50%= 137mil left for drake

Today: say 40mil (market still open) = 117mil shares left for drake on a average (as per chart above on 50%) leaves a estimated 14 days to go of selling......that's firstly if only 50% is them..... Secondly that's if they want to reduce their total holdings......which I doubt.

on the other end of the scale and if I do the same excersise on a rule of thumb that the drake is 75% of the volume then I come up with the following conclusion

290,000,000 starting holdings

October 1: 119mil traded, 75%= drake down to 200,750,000 (290mil-75% of vol)

October 2: 25mil traded, drake down to 182,000,000

October 3, 21.5mil traded, drake down to 165.8mil

October 6: 22mil traded, drake down to 149.3mil

October 7: 14mil traded, drake down to 138.8mil

October 8: 13.5mil traded, drake down to 128.67 mil

October 9: 137.5mil traded, drake down to 62.22 mil

October 10: 37mil so far(market still open), drake down to 35.9mil..

whatver the the calcs and percentages I believe higher than 75%...... I believe the holdings is reduced massively and the pain is short lived.....

saying that.... If drake sell their holdings and this stock is not running like a bull I would be very cautious as the market is not normally wrong.

cheers

obviously, this is all IMO only