Everyone has a theory, whatever makes them comfortable I guess. History shows after being insulted by an angry mob, moderated to an inch of my life, and fully clued up, I usually hang around to the bitter end to say I told you so. Only time calls the winner. Peeps need to relax a bit, I haven't called DRE over-valued yet, just at risk, I'll amend my sentiment to sell if things go that way. As usual, holders only want comforting reassurance from HC, not uncomfortable opinions.
So far I tried to make clear that Mangaroon is mid-way through the race and still an exploration play. True, my jaundice comes from not being a fan of the 'World Class' neighbour Yangibana (or HAS reporting style like the non-credible Feb'22 DFS update). DRE needs better. Yin is a good start, but only 2 new projects identified out of 66 new targets from last July's radiometric and ortho-imagery is disappointing I say. Others think differently or Dean is keeping newly discovered prospects up his sleeve for later. Another 13km ironstone trend extended at Yin and Y8. I see many kilometres of marginal to uneconomic ironstones at Yangibana, the last ~1km of Yin drilled nth and sth looked pretty average or worse. There is no geological rule says ironstone mineralisation east and wet of the carbonatite centre has to be symmetrical. Maybe Yin-central is one and done, who knows, roll the dice with the rig...
Carbonatites, Dean knows exactly what he's drilled so far from the portable XRF. 15% of Yangibana's opex is mining costs, the rest is ore bene, float, hydromet and so on down the line. I know bulk mining economies of scale don;t work well with carbonatites for that reason... look up the Yangi Reserve cut-off grade in NdPr for an idea of where the NdPr grade needs to be just to make it into above waste in the pit. For that matter, based on the last two Yangi DFS updates, the Yin MRE Fenite material at 0.2% cut (5.5Mt out of 14.4Mt total Inf Res) is below mining ore cut-off. It's mineralised waste at best. Details people, details actually matter... thematic investing vs reality.
Perhaps DYOR and learning what constitutes uneconomic, marginal or winner is unfashionable on HC, but I assure you big money doesn;t just bottom drawer speccy shares and wait 12-24 months for a binary outcome. For that matter, smart money never takes bullish headlines on face value... that's a sure way to go broke.
GLTAH
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