DRE Chart, page-2012

"Im curious..21c, If you were put in charge here and given a free reign, what would you do exploration wise?"... exactly the same, never criticised the exploration approach, though not always a fan of the communication style.

"Your highlighting and extrapolation of negative points over positve points in regard to this company."... no doubt about it. I brought a contrarian view to balance the debate and people's price expectations. I am prosecuting the bearish perspective, what I see as the odds for exploration success, but always try to be fair regards the value of Yin and upside from potential new discoveries. My natural bias includes suspicion about the veracity of management claims in all ASX companies and pessimism from long experience that future results don't live up to early hype more often than not. Don't hide that obviously, it's up to readers to decide what weight to give my arguments and what discount due to my bias...

"I find it a bit sad that you dont apply the same level of scrutiny to balance of your overall posts as you do to your technical analysis."... untrue, my position and portrayal of the risks and reality of the Gifford Ck project and DRE's valuation has been consistent. Two big differences since I first turned up here; the share price has almost halved and Tesla dropped their non RE-perm mag guidance. So while I haven't commented on DRE valuation being way overs since the share price dropped, Tesla's considerable implications mean neither have I said the sell off is overdone and DRE clearly undervalued. The vehemence of my defence and response to some posters is reaction not intention. Re-read my earlier posts... yes I was sparring with the bulls, but I tried to keep it light and friendly.

IMHO, Tesla's guidance has profound implications for all ASX Re players. In short, the risks to REO prices will be reflected in share prices because investors are risk adverse and need very high rewards should new non-RE Mag tech fail to deliver practical alternatives to RE-Mag. I see speculating in explorer/developers as a risk-reward play, where the share price adjusts to reflect all possible outcomes, across many individual opinions, overlain by a semi-efficient market hypothesis (most insider info leaks into the market price) and general market conditions etc.

Analysis of deposit economics is mostly maths with limited unknowns beyond product price. Exploration potential is more subjective but relatively simple and valued around sensible geological extrapolation and probabilities of grade/tonnage success. For a bespoke commodity like REOs, the economics around China's long-term dominance, supply chain difficulties, strategic risks, substitution alternatives etc, are complicated and fascinating to say the least. Posters who laughed off Tesla's implications early have been made to look the fools they were... the jury is in on that front. Share prices across the RE sector have clearly all priced in a substitution risk reality discount, whether you agree it's reasonable or not.

While I'm here, my views on the substitution risk and REO price implications.

• RE-P-Mags will be around for a long time out of inertia and maybe some requirement in bespoke applications even if alternative P-mags are developed.
• China will maintain it's dominance with clearly suitable magnetic performance at competitive prices with any new non-RE mag tech I suspect. Nothing wrong with RE-P-Magnets.
• The west (like Tesla) is weighing up the cost, performance and strategic value of extracting themselves form China's RE-mag control using non-RE mag alternatives. Lower performance maybe, higher costs maybe, longer term maybe not? The strategic value of production certainty should China invade Taiwan or whatever is substantial.
• What drop in performance will consumers accept in return for EV companies gaining supply certainty? I doubt Tesla's new generation EV's will be accepted by the market at 30% lower performance or with substantial weight and cost penalties. Therefore I doubt Tesla's drive-train team came out to embarrass themselves without any plan to remove Re's, and that plan is not such a large drop in performance to make their EV's unappealing or unaffordable (quite the opposite).
• Maybe Tesla has no IP and are simply hoping Niron's new pilot plant and sample magnets are successful and come mid-20's are the RE-P-Mag substitute killer Tesla and others are hoping for? Maybe without Niron's iron-nitride magnets the ferrite-mag alternatives are not up to snuff and the industry is forced to stick with RE-P-mags... good news for all RE players and the rewards will be commensurate.
• Niron's iron-nitride magnets are real, based on over a decade of intensive research and development. The upside for RE investors is that actual commercial production in volume proves too difficult, costly and/or with too unreliable product. Niron commercialised their iron-nitirde magnet tech in 2017 against a background of lower RE strategic concerns and price expectations, so they must think there's a good chance their magnets are both cheap and reliable to produce. RE investor's downside...
• At say $200/kg Nd-Ox, Niron could afford to manufacture iron-nitride magnets with maybe only 25% plant nameplate output of acceptable quality magnets and still make a profit. At very high prices it almost guarantees non-RE P-mags will be able to economically substitute Re-mags with the added bonus of supply certainly ex-China involvement. At say $50/kf Nd-Ox, if Niron has commercial production problems and can only run at 25% nameplate they are probably losing a heap of money. Governments and/or Ev manufacturers will have to subsidise shit plant performance to compete with RE-mags or let Niron fail. If iron-nitride mags are too difficult and expensive to produce, it supports RE-mags continuing to dominate and the west finds it cheaper and preferable to subsidise RE production rather than non-RE alternatives (non-RE mags and/or non-P-Mag induction motors).
• The reason I'm repeating myself regards iron-nitride manufacturing performance and costs is because this point is critical to RE developers imo. If Yangi or Nolans etc require >$150/kg Nd prices to cover costs and repay debt the odds iron-nitride or other motor substitutes are economically competitive are high, which in turn increases the chance Nd-Ox prices fall below $150/kg and high cost RE) producers go broke. We know Mt Weld, ILU mineral sand monazite and others will be financially viable at $100/kg Nd-ox and probably much lower, they won;t go broke and continue to supply REO's for bespoke and/or ongoing RE-mag production.
• Substitution risk rises with rising commodity price... it's an economic law. Yangi's last development update (MRE Feb'23) used ~$177/kg Nd-Ox prices to generate a development friendly revenue:cost ratio. That is a problem... higher REO prices increases the chance of substitution, begetting falling REO prices and then insolvency (or at least HAS share price heading towards zero). All this goes into my risk-reward pricing for RE players, and others judging by the market's reaction.

"geeze dude, this is an explorer, they have got onto something of value already and need to poke around and see what else may be there. You seem to want to just give up and walk away sometimes."... Not at all, that's absurd. Explorers have to explore what they have, not what they want.

Of course DRE will continue to explore Mangaroon and their other projects in the hope of discovering a economic deposits and/or having commodity prices kiss them on the proverbial. My commentary has always been around what share price DRE should be to reflect the many risks and rewards. Circling back to the beginning, at 11c they looked over-valued to me, at 6c I can't say they are they are over or under-valued. Time will tell depending on what they find and how RE-mag motor substitution pans out. Although Tesla was supportive of my DRE-overvalued call, looks clear to me my call was correct and anyone who considered my opinion and acted earlier is better off for it. Veni Vidi Vici... (because I know you'd be disappointed if I didn't live up to my arrogant reputation lol)

Sorry, not sorry for the long post. GLTAH