Everyone here can read a simple chart, even if they don't...

Everyone here can read a simple chart, even if they don't believe their lying eyes...


Bounced off 2021/22 LT 4c support in Aug 23, then broke down below 4c big time in Oct after re-test. Now heading for 1.5c support after slicing through 2.5c, the level it broke out of in 2021 on initial Tarraji-Yampi exploration success and excitement.

Charts show the market's reactions to news flow, changing exploration potential and value proposition over time. The trends represent complex feedback loops that can and do over/under shoot 'reasonable value' at any point in time, overlain by the general market mood as it always is. There were good fundamental reasons mid-2022 breakout to 15c looked overdone at the time, and demonstrable reasons why it would fall given the REE market news flow and prices, and disappointing Mangaroon exploration results beyond Yin early discovery and dill out. I don;t believe charts can be properly analysed without reference to fundamentals, others would disagree...

The downtrend is now so long and well entrenched, what punters really want to know is;
when will it end and start basing?
when is it over-sold on a peer-relative market value basis?

Exploration companies with a small bag of wing-and-prayer projects are worth very little, reflecting both the low probability of discovering a real company maker and the inevitable heavy ongoing CR dilution to try and find it. In this market, such an unloved and un-prospective explorer might have a MC of ~$10M, if they're lucky.

DRE has been banging away at most of their projects since 2020 when their MC was <$10M. SOI has risen from ~2 to 3.5B, with another 0.5B to be added over the next 6 months probably to keep up heavy exploration spending. No choice, stopping exploration to save money for an explorer is like stopping a clock to save time... IMHO, they have downgraded to near worthless or killed most of their projects over the last 4 years with the exception of Mangaroon RE. If the next 12 months continues the trend of poor results on old projects (eg Tarraji-Yampi, Mangaroon Ni, tiny gold prospects) and fails to deliver success on the lithium pegs or Bresnahan fashion play they will only be worth $10M + Yin.

In short, despite great expectations and management excitement over results, exploration disappointed and that lack of success is reflected in the long declining share price. Obviously material exploration success will turn the trend around (not poor results sold as success), while continued exploration failure will see the falling price continue. This much should also be obvious to all readers, and why alternative views to management's on exploration results is so valuable to investors not blindly wedded to a stock.

Some traders will want to catch a bounce should market sentiment improve, while stale bulls will sell into any bounce and be happy to get out of jail cheaply if the opportunity arises. A failed explorer with so many dead bodies overhead will not rise with the market tide unless accompanies with new exploration success in my experience. There has to be something of value to attract enough new buyers, and recycling old failures won't do it unless a bull market in the relevant commodity comes along.

For argument's sake, say exploration fails to deliver again in 24 on the gold, copper, nickel etc, what is DRE worth based on the Yin REE project that really was what drove the price in the first place? HAS MC is $85M, had $67M cash end of Sep Qtr, sits on Yangi with ~$150M of investments in infrastructure and plant plus 10 years of permitting, finance and off-takes behind it. It owes Twiggy a lot of money which doesn;t help, but if you wiped out the NEO investment loss against their cash then Yangi is worth a MC of about half the money already invested in plant/infra... By comparison then, Yin is worth very little in today's market besides an option on much higher RE prices in the future. Yin is probably worth little in M&A terms for that reason, because any acquirer is betting on a high enough future RE price to both make the project economic as it stands, plus carry whatever purchase price it cost to buy.

Still, it's certainly worth something to HAS whether or not they ever get up, and something to companies like ILU who would view it as a cheap RE call option at a cheap enough price. DRE has a MC today of $80M, covered by Yin and the exploration potential of it's grab-bag of projects. If exploration fails to deliver in 2024 Yin is not worth $70M, $50M or even $30M if the RE market continues to struggle and future supply is lined up by better, lower cost existing projects and new discoveries (or simply ongoing substitution away from RE-perm-mags in EV's etc).

At 1.5c and 4B SOI sometime this year, DRE will have a MC of $60M... The market knows without exploration success DRE could easily go to 1.5c and below, which is why buyers will not make any stand in volume and the price keeps falling on low volumes. Like it or not, the chart and trading activity is telling a very story to management and HC bulls about the value of Yin, recent results and probability of exploration success. That's the market talking, not 2ic...

GLTAH