DRE (ASX) DRE General discussion topics

Originally posted by Polonium210: ↑

Depends on where you draw the starting line, but following the acquisition of IronRinger group by Tychean in early 2019 that saw an additional 350 million shares added (plus another 23.3 million in lieu of the cash component)…so by the time Tychean re-named to Dreadnought at that same time there was a total of 1.08 billion SOI.
Since then, regular cap raisings to keep the ship moving forward (note, the SOI totals also includes the issue of securities through deals or tenure acquisition etc);
June 2019 ~$1.3 million (1.39 b SOI)
November 2019 ~$1.7 million (1.74 b SOI)
May 2020 ~$0.5 million (1.89 b SOI)
August 2020 ~$1.5 million (2.10 b SOI)
October 2020 ~$3.5 million (2.25 b SOI)
April 2021 ~$3 million (2.44 b SOI)
September 2021 ~$8 million (2.83 b SOI)
August 2022 ~$12 million (3.04 b SOI)
February 2023 ~$21.4 million (3.3 b SOI)
October 2023 ~$3.9 (3.46 b SOI)
The only reason for listing that is simply to highlight that the SOI have effectively tripled in five years…but at the end of the day that’s exploration really, its the game we choose to play. Plus anyone that participated in the early days has had ample opportunity to lock in a win.

Anyway, in looking forward, we are sitting on a working capital balance of ~5 million which is an ok buffer, not great but ok. I say not great because DRE does have reasonably high overheads (imo). e.g. half-yearly admin costs of $0.84 million, $0.1 million in legal fees, and staff costs of $0.4 million, not to mention the tenure holding costs…all of which adds up.
The issue is that most of these are fixed regardless of whether a drill bit touches the ground or not. Now fair enough, if they were planning to shut up shop and go into hibernation mode then you would also see a reduction of some of those over heads...but to go down that path obviously reduces the potential for a transformative value re-rate through discovery...which is what the aim is.
So, given the company position and assuming a somewhat reduced exploration burn rate as stated by DT (AC drilling still costs money) I personally think we are likely to see a raise before the end of the September quarter...it’ll just be a case of under what conditions and what exploration results come through.

To me leaving it until beyond then, or kicking the can too far down the road, would be irresponsible of management. I get that its a fine-line between raising early vs waiting for better terms...but running the gauntlet and pinning everything on either a change in market sentiment or exploration success is an unnecessary risk in an inherently risky business. I would much prefer they make a preemptive raise to secure funding for the planned exploration strategy then go and test that exploration strategy, rather than being backed into a corner.

Expand

Watch what happens to the share price when everyone starts dumping before end of financial year to take advantage of tax losses!
Unless something massive is discovered very soon, this will get real nasty with end of year coming & credit raise looming...

No.	Vol.	Price($)
2	1012050	1.6¢

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2688923

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2	1012050	0.016
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3	1520999	0.013
6	3894840	0.012

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3894840

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0.017	2688923	11
0.018	2359168	6
0.019	1021119	8
0.020	1797512	9
0.021	4121225	9

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2688923

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4121225

(20min delay)
Last 1.6¢		Change -0.001(5.88%)		Mkt cap ! $59.72M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
1.6¢	1.7¢	1.6¢	$59.31K	3.684M

DRE General discussion topics, page-448

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