I wouldnt say 'for nothing' too soon.Speccy exploration/mining...

I wouldnt say 'for nothing' too soon.
Speccy exploration/mining is risky. Add in the volatile rare earth factor, helped in no small part by chinas manipulation and u have another layer of risk.

on the other hand, I'd venture to say that the risk is even higher relying on any decision that depends on an agreement between the USA and China, especially with the orange man in charge. Add to that the point mentioned in that ABC article about China's history of manipulating prices to snuff out competition before they get estabilshed and you don't have a good case for declaring it's lights out for rare earth miners just yet.

Seems to me that china weilds the threat of not supplying rare earths for political gain but tapers off enforcing it and made this 'agreement' just
before rare earth momentum gets too carried away. It all helps to keep prices in check, disincentivise RE competition and maintain their control over the market.

Now considering how essential rare earths are to execute warfare, and how China and the USA are increasingly heading in that direction over Taiwan, China's proxy support for Ukraine, USD hedgemony etc, how long would you expect this deal to last? Look at all the back and forth yoyo-ing between those two parties so far with the tariff deals etc. Definatly a bit unreliable.

I think the agreement you refer to (havnt read about it tbh) is on shaky ground during the best times. Throw in trumps unpredictability, volatility and it's even worse. Any sign of actual war between US and China and that agreement is worth less than an old an old stool sample. I havnt read it yet but I assume it doesn't include Europe which is also gearing up for war in a big way and will need a ton of rare earths too so i dont think rare earth viability hinges solely around the USA.

The fact that Australia can supply and soon process a lot of this in demand product will bode well for any decent deposits. We can be a stable preferred supplier and processor to the western world. DRE's deposit is an attractive one, bordering an established player that is builder processing capacity. I'm not deterred by the news of this deals. Its not without risk of course but there is a lot of upside to be had too whether China makes this deal or not.

And of course we still have the gold assets to help us along should the RE's not provide any action.