In between crypto hodler nonsense and other meaningless ramps, a lot of posters wondering why the price is falling when the story is so good (just ask Dean). The biggest mistake punters can make imo is over-confidence and thinking sellers are the fools... rarely the case. Do some reading on the Lassonde Curve if you're not already over it. Explains the typical exit of early investors taking profits and moving on to new speculative ventures once exploration stops adding material upside to current expectations. Yin has some value for sure, but DRE is clearly still an exploration play.
I thought management would have had something better than a greenfields Hail Mary, and pie in the sky exploration target to follow-up the CR with, but it seems maybe not. Go look at PVW with their 'Unconformity, Athabasca Basin Style' play near NTU's Brown Range for what Bresnahan is currently worth. IPX have NTU's ex top geo on board doing good work, but encouraging geology and some good hits are a million miles from economic discovery. PVW MC $13M, $10M less cash, $5M for shell... say their large Tanami Unconformity basin project is worth $5M of their MC.
Exploration Targets are last refuge of the desperate imo. Cherry pick the best results (ie Yin Central) then extrapolate them into the unknown. We can all arm wave and dream. It's more likely than not, imo, Yin will be the best to come out of Mangaroon, and it's a fine line between economic and not based on Yanibana's last update. Controversial, though not unsubstantiated, it really doesn;t matter what I think. ET's are warm and fuzzy maths on a project's potential, but adds little beyond upside the market was already pricing in.
What's happened at Mangaroon since last July and all the excitement post 6c Cr up to 15c and back down? In short:
- 44 new targets that looked to add many new prospects only added two outside extensions to Yin and Sabre/Y8. Both small in size and distant... thats a big miss imo.
- Drilled 4 most of the C1-5 carbonatites. Handheld XRF tells the story, long before first assays released. First assays not on holes in order drilled, but cherry picked the best holes over best targets is my guess. Results released from C3 look way under economic from a detailed evaluation of Yangibana economics. If un-assayed holes are no better, if infill drilling is no better, if un-drilled C5 is no better, then it's probably worth nothing.
- C6 carbonatite is another high risk, high reward target sure, but very few carbonatites globally (if it is indeed one) comprise economic mineralisation. C1-C5 being a direct example, plenty others all over obviously.
- Drilling results from Sabre-Y8 were also disappointing. Not just in the skinny, pinch and sweel ironstone distribution, but the low NdPr:TREO ratio averaging around 23% is a killer. TREO grades need to be 33% higher than Yin to worth equivalent at 31% NdPr:TREO. How would the ET look if they extrapolated Sabre-Y8 results over 40km?
The outcome of this exploration (ground truthing, rock chip sampling, drilling) is known months in advance of assays and release. Whether or not information leaks, fact is the market is trading and waiting on the next results release long after results are already known. Selling from 12c down to 9c second half 2022 coincided with target generation and carbonatite drilling disappointment... it's tough to punt explorers knowing you are months behind the rumour.
I will be surprised if the outstanding carbonatite holes drilled last year return better results than the holes seemingly selected for first assay pre-CR. So much hangs on exploration luck next 3-6 months, or DRE will start to be valued on Yin alone... much lower than $350M that's for sure. After taking a closer look at the 'emerging' Gascoyne RE province, i'm now more convinced the share price top is in and it's down the Lassonde Curve from here unless a material new discovery is made. Another Yin under cover, a cracking grades in C6, much better grades in C1-5, a number of Orion repetition sin the Kimberly, remarkable early success at Bresnahan, all would all make the difference.
Exploration potential certainly exists, don't misunderstand, at Mangaroon and DRE's other prospects. I may be too pessimistic on exploration success, but beware those who talk up exploration like it's a foregone conclusion. Results from the 2022 second half exploration listed above look like Deans lucky run may be coming to an end. I hope not, exploration success is great for investors, the entire industry and our country for that matter. For those still puzzled why sellers keep coming, it's not problems with the RE price or RE bull market imo, exploration results below last July's high expectations are the simple explanation.
And they probably keep selling, hitting every bounce to try and break even, until and unless material exploration success turns this around. Too many in the market are not here for a 3-5 year journey down the Lassonde Curve, just to start working back up on the other side. Know your plan, how long you're prepared to hold, and how low the price might go before investing is my advice. Too many bottom drawers stuffed with shares that were originally only bought for a punt.
Sitting close to support waiting for good news. Lower lows over 6 months is the trend. Fingers crossed, good luck!
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