It has been a while since they positively surprised us, however, they did succeed back in 2008, raising substantially above VWAP (to RCF @ ~$0.64), so it is not impossible.
I think they have a slight chance at raising above market **IF** hanlong were ever serious about buying BMN.
If not hanlong, the only others I can think of is RCF (though probably unlikely as their investment isnt looking great) and maybe one of the other mysterious "interested parties" whos names we never hear.
I put it at about 90/10 (90% chance of raising under VWAP, 10% at over VWAP) which is why I still dont hold.
If theyre going to do it at all, you'd think theyll want to raise soon or defer to next year and hope for the best. The way its going, if they leave it too much longer, the 80% VWAP will be under 20c as you say.
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