Australia's largest stock trading and investment forum Australia's #1 stock forum

NRZ

Click for more information

0.00%

1.3¢ neurizer ltd

Correction; The units in the following paragraph from my last...

First 42 Last

Share
Profile

Follow
chuk

13,728 Posts.

3938

27/05/19

14:25

Post #: 38761699
Share

Originally posted by chuk: ↑

OK, how about I post what I have understood through reading company announcements over the last 4 years and then some of you may wish to comment if you disagree with any of it.

The resource is unconventional but very large and now proven to reserve status which appears to be enough for deals to proceed with potential partners/ buyers . There are multiple interested parties in discussions and some transactions/deals may not be too far off. A quick read of one peer - Central Petroleum gave me the impression of a conventional gas resource for them (someone please correct me if needed) that has low production cost at around $2/GJ but one that is a large distance from large markets (Brisbane, Sydney etc) so transport costs are high at $4.50/GJ (CTP March 2019 presentation). LCEP needs pipeline connectors but is comparatively much closer to major market - Adelaide so transport costs should be lower while production costs might be higher due to being unconventional although this may be offset by the much higher volumes.
Central has a net 134PJ compared to 1153PJ for LCK. Central stated that increased volume is expected to bring costs down. Palm Valley installed capacity of 15TJ/d (5.5PJ per year). LCK will be able to achieve much stronger volumes (aiming for 50-60PJ/yr) due to the much larger reserves.
Macquarie bid $96mill in 2017 for Central (bid failed) which valued their current 134PJ at 71c/PJ two years ago (with lower gas prices at the time). Central is currently valued at $.80/PJ.
LCK is currently valued at 14c/PJ.

LCK's May presentation has a NPV of $4.25bill for UREA or $2.6bill for GAS. IRR's seem low at around 15% but I'm thinking that is not going to be an unattractive return for a large infrastructure project, especially considering the forecasts for higher long term prices. $2.6bill NPV for the gas works out to $2.25/PJ of 2P reserves versus current 14c/PJ value by mc.

My question is; is there any reason to believe any deals offered will be significantly less than 71c/GJ (as offered for Central's much smaller project) considering the much larger reserves on offer and the big need for reserves going forward among the large players?
This all appears to suggest a major re-rating higher is likely on any announced deals which could happen relatively soon. I think time to first production will have little to do with any deal driven re-rating of the share price.

Expand

Correction; The units in the following paragraph from my last post should have been c/GJ not c/PJ

Macquarie bid $96mill in 2017 for Central (bid failed) which valued their current 134PJ at 71c/PJ two years ago (with lower gas prices at the time). Central is currently valued at $.80/PJ.
LCK is currently valued at 14c/PJ.

LCK's May presentation has a NPV of $4.25bill for UREA or $2.6bill for GAS. IRR's seem low at around 15% but I'm thinking that is not going to be an unattractive return for a large infrastructure project, especially considering the forecasts for higher long term prices. $2.6bill NPV for the gas works out to $2.25/PJ of 2P reserves versus current 14c/PJ value by mc.

LCK Price at posting: 27.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
Upvote

2 Great analysis

Reply

Top Stories

SBW

Shekel Brainweigh CEO Nir Leshem weighs in on AI adoption ahead of FY25

With financials holding the fort, materials must step up with some heavy lifting to stimulate stocks

AML

Cultural heritage agreement puts Walford Creek exploration back on the map

STX

Strike Energy secures $153 million for Perth Basin gas projects

RDN

If you thought lithium was dead, think again. The Pilbara will be central to the next upswing

First 42 Last

Add NRZ (ASX) to my watchlist