Drilling programme potential, page-109

Yes. That is pretty much how I see it. Nothing in all my experience tells me that business is rational, rather than emotional, psychological, or something. But PJs rock-bottom analysis correlates quite well with market sentiment right now, so it's a useful reality check.
But there is nothing surer than a change of sentiment in an oversold sector. I know I'm begging the question calling oil oversold. I don't doubt that oil is on 'the wrong side of history'. But it's a timing thing: oil is tobacco in 1964; oil is IBM in 1983 when all the smart guys knew that mainframes were toast; oil is Microsoft in 1992 when all the smart guys knew that open systems would win over proprietary.
The smartest guys left tons of money on the table.