Drilling programme potential, page-114

Rae,

Can someone tell me just WHY the interpretations were so far out and now have a 42% increase.?

Straight-fwd answer. They had to basically re-map the entire structure at SNE.

FAR & Hunt contracted CGG to shoot their 3Dseis back in Feb 2007 over the block & identified and mapped the leads/prospects.

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20070215/pdf/310z9q10v1q2j6.pdf

Post SNE-1 disc in Nov 2014, which was targetting the deeper Aptian carbonates as primary reservoir, they had a wake-up call as in 'hang-on their's no oil in the carbonates, but their's this sand blanket across several kilometres that has 32 API oil'.

So the Polarcus Adira were contracted for the latest 3Dseis survey in wk-2 of Sept'15. They focussed over SNE structure for the first 3-4 weeks b4 mapping other leads to the north. An Operator can request data cube over a particular area to fast-tracked so that any material change to volumetrics etc can b done. So simply put they must have had the wireline data from SNE-1, VSP seis from the wellbore to identify the 'blocky & wispies', original 3Dseis plus new 3Dswath to remap the structure.

So to answer yr question, what they may loose in 'thickness' can b compensated by the 'areal' extent. U could have a 30m sand across 30km2 or a 15-20m thick sand sheets across a very large area.

The size of the red area (gascap polygon) by my calc's is apprx 95 km2 & the green area much larger then b4. This together is much larger then the old contours that FAR were showing in May'15 preso's onwards. Hence the need to revise the 2C etc...

All the newly acquired drill/core/test/pressure/3Dseis/VSP data will add to their model's confidence with the only variable shifting across the reservoir model being the thickness, poro, GOR etc etc.

All the old data must have been looked at by RISC b4 signing off & a deed of confidence is signed up by 3rd party Consultants etc.

Cairn r using ERC-Equipoise so they'll come up with something down the track eventually that should b shared by the JV partners. Hope that helps with the 42% dilemma. As one drills multiple wells across the field this number will change over the course of time esp with production, but if there r no major faults identified on the 3Dseis then must b a no-brainer scenario.

The volumetrics should change when they do a dynamic model (rather then several iterations of the current Static Model) of the field once production starts, ie carve up the entire field into 100 x 100m cells or 1km x 1km grid at a higher level & monitor depletion across the crest/toe end or in 1 sector and so on.

What the JV could also do with regards to Bell/Sir/Sol, is to perhaps 'rebrand' SNE as 'Greater SNE' structure if they r all oil bearing, that's the norm in the industry.

Took FAR 10 yrs since farming in to Senegal around 20th Jan'06 to get a revised 2C out, that's the nature of this industry. Just my views for now. Nothing new to add here till Bellatrix results, enjoy.