Hi B4 Re your remark: "Sorry PJ to exclude you" (from the...

Hi B4

Re your remark: "Sorry PJ to exclude you" (from the underlying optimism of holders that have joined the dots).

That's OK, its expected! And talking of expectations, as explained to Gilbert, with respect to the RISC report and my tables I do already have that underlying optimism built into the price.

Now, on the other hand, when post completion of the first three appraisal wells Cairn come up with an 800mmbl (2P/2C) or field or higher, then I will be only too happy to add it back into the tables for you so we can check how that matches the market forecast price! And if SNE 3 is really really good I might even add it back for you as an option before then

Meanwhile lets get a grip on things and not start talking about RISC's 940mmbls 3C as if it were a proven and probable SNE reserve/resource like some appear to be rather loosely implying (not you). By definition 3C is a P10 probability contingent on the positive completion of ?how many appraisal wells around the extended periphery.

So, in the interests of consistency, can we please just stick to the mid case P50 numbers for now, as we have always been doing in the tables in the past? And in this respect I can't help but point out that the upgraded RISC 468mmbls 2C number falls neatly into the 400-500mmbl (2P/2C) "preferred target progress volumes" in the current tables summary and as indicated earlier and in my reply to Gilbert the spreadsheets have suggested for some time that a 2C resource of around 480mmbls has already been firmly built into the price.

Still, enough of all that damp squib stuff for today, sorry guys its just the way I see the reports, obviously quite differently from many and perhaps more cynically than most. Professional pessimist Hardmano calls me ... and maybe there's an element of truth in that although from my end it's really just the result of providing what I consider a more realistic view as a counter to what I see as the unbridled optimism of certain posters and thus present a better overall balance to the forum.


pj