Drilling progress and indicators?

Its hard to assess where the drilling will be up to and when. Last year's drilling is a poor guide as the drilling stopped and started and announcements gave insufficient detail to work out exactly how long SNE-1 took to reach TD. And it was a very average rig ... FAR have said they expect "more efficient drilling performance" with ORA.

So all we have is that FAR has said 5 weeks from spud to TD at 2,770m sub-sea and its being drilled in 1,100m of water. We also know that they drilled SNE-3 to 1,750m in 7 days or less. That's 93m per day but this top part you would expect to be quicker anyway.

Taking the 35 days (5 weeks) to TD (plus 1 week to log as CNE said 6 weeks to drill and log) from 1,100m to 2,770m that's 48m per day average. If they took a similar 7 days to get to 1,750 as they did at SNE-3 they should now be at around 2,086m. So that would mean another 9 days approx to the top of the gas cap. All VERY approximate .... if the drilling rate is more like 100m per day we would be at the gas cap around now.

The purpose of these estimates?? Well .. given FAR has said its a tight hole and they won't be releasing anything until TD is reached we are going to have to look for signs in the trading IMHO. Its always been a good guide in the past. That could be as early as next week if the above is at all accurate. If not then certainly by the last week of November the target zones should have been entered.

Passing the time really, as the share price is going nowhere at least until after the entitlement offer closes tomorrow.

H