I'm generally optimistic on TCL, but something that concerns me is the assets in the USA, which are under-performing already and which require "recapitalising". Its possible the company is throwing good money after bad. You see, the self driving car is not that far off, and according to an article in Forbes (
http://www.forbes.com/sites/micheli...sit-promise-for-googles-new-self-driving-car/), this will likely lead to "a sophisticated taxi system without drivers, and where the vehicles use sophisticated software and communications systems to pick up and deliver multiple passengers on any particular trip". That's not just going to hurt TCL's assets in the USA, it will kill them. Why? Because all journeys with three or more passengers are free to use the toll roads under the concession deed.
The profitability of TCL's assets is dependent on long running concessions to repay debt. With the US assets only recently completed, or about to be completed, they depend on decades and decades of solid traffic growth to repay debt and provide a return to investors. But the self-driving car is not that far away.
Google's self driving car has already received a permit to drive in California (
http://www.theverge.com/2014/9/22/6...s-self-driving-cars-google-audi-mercedes-benz). This is in addition to permits already received in other countries.
Only a year ago, I thought the self driving car was a decade away. Now I'm not that sure. It looks like it will only be a matter of years before the first models are commercialised. And the roads may be saturated with them in a decades time, transforming our cities and the way we travel.
Overall, I think driverless technology has the capability to increase traffic and revenue of toll roads, as the "cost per trip" decreases since multiple occupants are able to share the same vehicle. This may lead to a shift from traditional public transport towards driverless mass transit on TCL's toll roads. Its possible that TCL's Australian assets will benefit from the driverless revolution. But one thing is for certain-- TCL's assets in the USA will crumble in its wake.
(20min delay)