We pretty much know what is in store for us this year in terms of announcements and progress toward building out the anode qualification plant but what might there be coming out of left field...a couple of thoughts on both.
What we can reasonably expect:
- Assay results for the remaining 40 or so Vittangi drill cores to support Stage 1 operations (19.5k).
- Commencement of the drilling program for Niska (to support Stage 2 (100k).
- Start of operations at the Anode Qualification Plant.
- Possibly a mining permit for Stage 1 operations.
- Results of Niska drilling.
- Lodgement of EIA/EIS paperwork for Stage 2.
- An update on the MOU with Mitsui.
- CAPEX funding update.
- Feedback from EV OEM's on qualification.
- Updated silicon doped anode performance.
Left field possibilities:
- A non-binding offtake agreement with Northvolt and/or Tesla (or someone else) for Talnode C anodes.
- An offtake agreement with a 3C customer.
- Appointment of a mining contractor for Stage 1 open pit operations.
- Mining approval for Stages 1 & 2.
- CAPEX funding deal for Stage 1.
- Pressure from the EU for Sweden to step up and approve Talga's mining operation and production plans.
- A significant graphene update.
So which of these might occur first...the obvious standout is a conditional offtake deal given the tightening graphite market.
If that is so, which company might it be. Breadcrumbs point to Northvolt the one just down the road that's been talking a lot about clean green batteries and local supply. Any such announcement would have to be based on a high degree of certainty that Talga could deliver AAM in 2024/25.
Quantity wise can't imagine Talga would want to commit any more than half its planned output to any one customer meaning a deal with Northvolt might be for 10k tpa enough for around 200k small cars similar in size to VW's Polos and Golfs.
Pricewise presumably at market prices which by the middle of the decade could well be twice or three time the figure in the DFS roughly enough to generate a gross margin around a billion annually.
All pure speculation on my part but given Syrah has moved seems to me Talga won't be far behind.
All that said, I wouldn't be surprised if our first offtake deal is with a 3C customer, tonnages are likely to be smaller and the qualification process somewhat less demanding but still sweet for a company looking to get into the anode business
Either would be welcome news to shareholders.
(20min delay)