Ok I want to point a few things out with Bowmans post. No disrespect is intended, so please don't take offence.
- It is interesting today that many jumps out to say valuation is too high, and they also won't forget to mention they sold at a certain price.
People always flex they bought at a low price when the stock is going up, and flex they sold at a high price when the stock is going down. Anytime people do this I wonder what they have to prove when such a thing isn't supporting their point (i.e. its just bragging/flexing). It happens, it'll always happen and like you should do when someone at the Bar brags about something just say "That's nice" and move on.
- I think every DRO shareholder knows the valuation is high. But let's face it, it will always going to be high in the current environment
Agreed - valuation (lets assume we mean P/E) is high based on backward looking metrics (i.e reported facts). It's also high based on estimates of future earnings (~$120-$140m revenue for FY24).
As you said, given the current environment one might go a step further to say we're fairly valued based on a high revenue for FY24 but what about our value relative to FY25? Sometimes stock prices get away from current valuations because the market is confident that not only current year growth targets will be hit but future years too. Hence they want to get in at whatever prices they can.
- It is almost certain that at some point, there will be a major order from the left field that is so large the price will sky rocket again.
The thing is there is zero certainty about DRO. We can talk about likelihoods, but this is generally dangerous. Directors sold in 2023 just weeks prior to announcing a record shattering $33m deal - this is likely due to the fact they dont have any certainty they'll win contracts until they win them. They do share a confident factor in their pipeline and the wording from Oleg in recent podcasts is positive however, we need to take out that certainty.
Further your point is it'll come out of left field. Where would left field be? Im expecting potential contracts related to
1. European nations building up capability
2. US aid deal to Ukraine and
possibly Israel
3. US (multiple military arms) buying to build up their capability.
#2 is likely not in the pipeline, but the others certainly are. I don't think we're looking for left field but may you mean "without warning" which i'd agree with.
- And you would want to have the ticket before that happens.
And the FOMO is likely what's supporting people's confidence to buy. As Buffet says tho - its not about buying great companies but its about the price you pay for them. An o.k. company at a great price is better than a great company at an o.k. price.
I wont be surprised if we have another tree shake in the next week. Personally, I wouldn't mind us retracing to $1-$1.50 as i'd top up here assuming no material business news.
(20min delay)